MBS Securities – The Week Ahead

Headline News and Market Report

Bond Market News and Perspective for Mortgage Professionals”

Monday, July 15, 2013


Retail Sales Up 0.4% in June, weaker than expected, with strength coming from strong Automobile and Gasoline sales.  Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales dropped 0.1%.   gasoline station sales increased 0.7%, and sales at auto dealers rose 1.8%, continuing a strong pattern of sales so far this year, which are up more than 11% from a year ago.  Retail sales have grown steadily since the depths of the economic crisis, however have stalled in the spring, with sales flat in March and April and rising a downwardly revised 0.5% in May.

Business Inventories were up 0.1% in May and Sales were up 1.1%.  The total business inventories/sales ratio in May was 1.29. The May 2012 ratio was 1.28.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index climbed to 9.5, the highest since February, from 7.8 last month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.

Treasuries Advance After June Retail Sales Lower Than Forecast.  The 10yr UST is up 11+/32 to yield 2.54% as of 10:44AM, and FNMA 3.0% are up 14/32, 3.5% up 13/32.

Bernanke testimony to be released 8:30 a.m. Wed.  The House Financial Services Committee said Monday it plans to release Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the panel at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. The remarks had been set for a 10 a.m. release. The committee said the change in timing would allow members of the House panel to review the testimony before the hearing begins at 10 a.m.

Bernanke Boom Signaled by Yield Surge as Market Recalculates.   The worst first half for Treasuries in four years has wrung the unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus out of bond prices as investors now look to low inflation and slow economic growth to contain yields.

What If Bernanke Could Be Blunt   David Wessel: Five things Bernanke would say to Congress this week if he chose to be blunt, and speak for himself

Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead

Week of July 15 – July 19






Consensus Forecast


Revised From

Jul 15 08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6%
Jul 15 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.0% 0.4% 0.3%
Jul 15 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jul 9.46 3.6 7.8
Jul 15 10:00 Business Inventories May 0.1% -0.1% 0.3%
Jul 16 08:30 CPI Jun 0.3% 0.1%
Jul 16 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 16 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows May NA -$37.3B
Jul 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 77.7% 77.6%
Jul 16 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Jul 51 52
Jul 17 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 07/13 NA -4.0%
Jul 17 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 958K 914K
Jul 17 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1000K 974K
Jul 17 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA -9.874M
Jul 17 14:00 Fed’s Beige Book Jul NA NA
Jul 18 08:30 Initial Claims 07/13 348K 360K
Jul 18 08:30 Continuing Claims 07/06 2950K 2977K
Jul 18 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 5.3 12.5
Jul 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun 0.3% 0.1%
Jul 18 10:30 Natural Gas Inventories 07/13 NA 82 bcf

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