Headline News and Market Report
“Bond Market News and Perspective for Mortgage Professionals”
Monday, July 15, 2013
Retail Sales Up 0.4% in June, weaker than expected, with strength coming from strong Automobile and Gasoline sales. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales dropped 0.1%. gasoline station sales increased 0.7%, and sales at auto dealers rose 1.8%, continuing a strong pattern of sales so far this year, which are up more than 11% from a year ago. Retail sales have grown steadily since the depths of the economic crisis, however have stalled in the spring, with sales flat in March and April and rising a downwardly revised 0.5% in May.
Business Inventories were up 0.1% in May and Sales were up 1.1%. The total business inventories/sales ratio in May was 1.29. The May 2012 ratio was 1.28.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index climbed to 9.5, the highest since February, from 7.8 last month. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Treasuries Advance After June Retail Sales Lower Than Forecast. The 10yr UST is up 11+/32 to yield 2.54% as of 10:44AM, and FNMA 3.0% are up 14/32, 3.5% up 13/32.
Bernanke testimony to be released 8:30 a.m. Wed. The House Financial Services Committee said Monday it plans to release Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to the panel at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. The remarks had been set for a 10 a.m. release. The committee said the change in timing would allow members of the House panel to review the testimony before the hearing begins at 10 a.m.
Bernanke Boom Signaled by Yield Surge as Market Recalculates. The worst first half for Treasuries in four years has wrung the unprecedented Federal Reserve stimulus out of bond prices as investors now look to low inflation and slow economic growth to contain yields.
What If Bernanke Could Be Blunt David Wessel: Five things Bernanke would say to Congress this week if he chose to be blunt, and speak for himself
Economic Indicator News Release Calendar for the weeks ahead
Week of July 15 – July 19
|Jul 15||08:30||Retail Sales||Jun||0.4%||0.7%||0.5%||0.6%|
|Jul 15||08:30||Retail Sales ex-auto||Jun||0.0%||0.4%||0.3%||—|
|Jul 15||08:30||Empire Manufacturing||Jul||9.46||3.6||7.8||—|
|Jul 15||10:00||Business Inventories||May||0.1%||-0.1%||0.3%||—|
|Jul 16||08:30||Core CPI||Jun||0.2%||0.2%|
|Jul 16||09:00||Net Long-Term TIC Flows||May||NA||-$37.3B|
|Jul 16||09:15||Industrial Production||Jun||0.3%||0.0%|
|Jul 16||09:15||Capacity Utilization||Jun||77.7%||77.6%|
|Jul 16||10:00||NAHB Housing Market Index||Jul||51||52|
|Jul 17||07:00||MBA Mortgage Index||07/13||NA||-4.0%|
|Jul 17||08:30||Housing Starts||Jun||958K||914K|
|Jul 17||08:30||Building Permits||Jun||1000K||974K|
|Jul 17||10:30||Crude Inventories||07/13||NA||-9.874M|
|Jul 17||14:00||Fed’s Beige Book||Jul||NA||NA|
|Jul 18||08:30||Initial Claims||07/13||348K||360K|
|Jul 18||08:30||Continuing Claims||07/06||2950K||2977K|
|Jul 18||10:00||Philadelphia Fed||Jul||5.3||12.5|
|Jul 18||10:00||Leading Indicators||Jun||0.3%||0.1%|
|Jul 18||10:30||Natural Gas Inventories||07/13||NA||82 bcf|